Unravelling the Theories Behind the Tragedy

The recent crash of Air India Flight AI171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, has left the aviation world in shock and mourning. 

With over 270 lives lost, including passengers and those on the ground, the incident has triggered a sweeping investigation by Indian and international authorities. 

As speculation swirls on social media, ranging from pilot error to design flaws, here is a comprehensive summary of the leading theories and the current state of the investigation.

Current Status of the Investigation

• Both the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and flight data recorder (FDR)—collectively known as the "black boxes"—have been recovered and are being analysed by India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) with support from US and UK teams. The investigation is expected to be lengthy due to the extent of the wreckage and the complexity of the case.
• A high-level committee has been formed by the Indian government to produce a preliminary report within three months and recommend safety improvements.

Theories Under Investigation

1. Pilot Error

• Flap/Gear Mismanagement: Aviation experts have raised the possibility of a fatal cockpit mistake. One theory suggests the co-pilot may have mistakenly retracted the flaps instead of the landing gear during the critical climb phase, severely reducing lift and causing the aircraft to lose altitude.
• Experience and Training: Both pilots were experienced, but investigators are reviewing training records and crew actions in the moments before the crash.

2. Mechanical or Electrical Failure

• Engine Failure: CCTV and survivor accounts mention a "loud noise" just after takeoff, raising the possibility of engine malfunction. The investigation is examining whether a sudden loss of power or double engine failure could have occurred—a rare but catastrophic event.
• Historical Precedent: An identical Air India Dreamliner experienced an engine failure in 2023 due to maintenance errors, specifically improper installation of a turbine blade. This history is prompting scrutiny of both the engines and maintenance protocols.

3. Maintenance Failures

• Previous Incidents: The 2023 emergency landing due to engine failure, attributed to a maintenance error, has put Air India’s maintenance practices under the microscope. Investigators are probing whether similar lapses could have contributed to the recent disaster.
• Regulatory Oversight: India's aviation regulator is reportedly understaffed, raising concerns about the effectiveness of oversight and the thoroughness of safety checks across the fleet.

4. Aircraft Design or System Issues

• 787 Dreamliner Record: This is the first fatal crash involving the Boeing 787 since its commercial debut in 2011, but investigators are not ruling out the possibility of a design or system flaw, especially if mechanical or electrical anomalies are found in the black box data.

5. Other Possible Causes

• Bird Strike: Experts have not ruled out the possibility of a bird strike during takeoff, which could have damaged an engine or other critical systems.
• Overloading or Improper Weight Distribution: The aircraft was reportedly fully fueled for a long-haul flight, and investigators are reviewing load sheets and weight distribution as potential contributing factors.
• External Sabotage or Unforeseen Events: While there is no evidence so far, investigators are expected to consider all possibilities, including sabotage, until conclusively ruled out.

 What Happens Next?

• Data Analysis: The black box data will be pivotal in reconstructing the flight’s final moments and determining the sequence of events.
• Fleet Inspections: India has ordered immediate safety checks on all Boeing 787 aircraft in operation as a precaution.
• International Collaboration: Given the aircraft’s US origin, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) are actively involved in the investigation.

While the cause of the Air India Dreamliner crash remains undetermined, investigators are methodically examining all plausible scenarios: pilot error, mechanical or electrical faults, maintenance lapses, design issues, and external factors like bird strikes or overloading. 

The coming months will be critical as data from the black boxes is analysed and findings are made public. 

Until then, speculation will persist, but only a thorough, evidence-based investigation can provide definitive answers and guide future safety measures.